I do not believe in crystal ball predictions of the future so I do not usually write articles predicting future events. But the outcome of the upcoming Singapore Summit between the US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un looks increasingly predictable. So, I am just going to go out on a limb and make a prediction on this summit’s outcome.
Let me first mention that I am making this prediction based on the following premise. The US President Donald Trump has overplayed the role of a “madman” in pursuing his foreign policy goals. This type of diplomacy is almost solely reliant on being unpredictable and Trump’s three main instruments to ensure unpredictability in international affairs have been threats of aggression/violence, disruption and misinformation. But, the unpredictability that he thinks this type of diplomacy brings is not quite as unpredictable as he might think and this becomes very clear when one looks at the developments in the field of chaos theory. Usually it is perceived that chaos cannot be determined but since the 1930s sufficient advances have been made in the field of mathematics which has made it possible to make chaos deterministic in important areas like the environment, climate, economics and finance. Unfortunately, for Donald Trump this also means that his preferred type of diplomacy can also be determined beforehand and thus could be countered and defeated.
There are three other things that also looked off to me in the build up to the Singaporean Summit. Firstly, the suddenness with which of the North Korean regime changed from being a belligerent power to a peace negotiator. Secondly, the Chinese so readily accepting North Korea courting the US and finally the persistence of the North Korean regime in continuing the peace talks even after Donald Trump had previously cancelled this Summit.
So, this is what I think will happen in the Singapore Summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. I think this Summit will completely fail and then the North Koreans and their Chinese backers will blame the US for it and show Trump’s conduct in international affairs in the recent past to prove that he is a serial offender. Then the Chinese will say that since North Korea has destroyed their nuclear testing facilities and ballistic missile testing facilities and shown openness to peace talks sanctions agreed upon by the international community are no longer valid and cannot by recognised in good conscience by the People’s Republic of China and so they will be resuming their full and open support for the regime in North Korea. Maybe a separate agreement with the Chinese might also be worked out under which the North Korean regime gets to keep their medium range missile and not develop ICBMs.
How difficult do you think it will be to convince most other nations of the Chinese argument? Trump has imposed tariffs on its closest allies, literary got into fights in the G7 meeting in Canada, threatened to impose tariffs on everyone after pulling out of the Iran deal, threatening to impose sanctions upon India, Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam amongst other countries under CAATSA. All of these incidences have now convinced the world that Trump cannot do any “Deal” with anyone diplomatically regardless of what his supporters at home think. So, even if the Singapore Summit fails due to the fault of the North Koreans whom will the entire world believe? Trump or the Chinese?